Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
1.2 miles North of Dublin
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
1.2 miles North of Dublin
37.7193°N, 121.9335°W
Forecast Time Window
14th of May 2026
May 14, 2026 09:24:28 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
242h 14m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
138.3 km
38.3 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
19.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.02
Predicted M2.48 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
11.3 km
Pred. 6.3 km vs actual 5.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
193346b02f530908fffd5749672a1b10bc46c25bc5757b0a6ce93cda3466730e
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260504_001003_pred-37.72--121.93-20260514T0924
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 04, 2026 07:10:06 PST
Source Batch
20260504_001003_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:08.168648+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.