Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
5.7 miles South-East of Quincy
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
5.7 miles South-East of Quincy
39.8886°N, 120.8594°W
Forecast Time Window
5th of May 2026
May 05, 2026 03:44:29 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
20h 34m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
89.6 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
34.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.94
Predicted M3.04 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
13.9 km
Pred. 6.3 km vs actual 7.6 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
ef7553e0060479a478cf389a91922bd912783dbae7e29fd9d0f60547bf8611f1
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260504_001003_pred-39.89--120.86-20260505T0344
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 04, 2026 07:10:06 PST
Source Batch
20260504_001003_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:08.168648+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.