Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.9
5.5 miles South of Silver Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
5.5 miles South of Silver Springs
39.3241°N, 119.2018°W
Forecast Time Window
31st of May 2026
May 31, 2026 10:02:47 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.9
Predicted value
Focal Depth
8.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
646h 19m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
16.1 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
17.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.79
Predicted M2.89 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
15.9 km
Pred. 8.8 km vs actual 7.1 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
0b4c2c2e4529d37db5259e471c601d2f619238152f75a1cabc8e8f98a28f6b6f
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260504_044256_pred-39.32--119.20-20260531T1002
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 04, 2026 11:42:59 PST
Source Batch
20260504_044256_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:09.255022+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.