Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
52.9 miles South-West of Imperial Beach
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
52.9 miles South-West of Imperial Beach
31.9195°N, 117.5635°W
Forecast Time Window
6th of May 2026
May 06, 2026 06:58:08 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
35h 50m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
143.5 km
43.5 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
9.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.05
Predicted M2.35 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
13.1 km
Pred. 9.1 km vs actual 4.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
db84b720937dfcd833ddd674930f3427082c3fa1cb77e13ad3fe1ffe5234810d
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260504_120805_pred-31.92--117.56-20260506T0658
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 04, 2026 19:08:08 PST
Source Batch
20260504_120805_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:10.057520+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.