Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.0
1.1 miles North-West of Johnson Valley
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
1.1 miles North-West of Johnson Valley
34.3643°N, 116.4751°W
Forecast Time Window
10th of May 2026
May 10, 2026 08:34:02 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
8.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
133h 25m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
78.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
2.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.16
Predicted M2.04 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
24.0 km
Pred. 8.6 km vs actual 15.4 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
e9a3a2fa95baa696c8656673e913b15bcc27e79622e45c85deae29a5e71bd56f
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260504_120805_pred-34.36--116.48-20260510T0834
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 04, 2026 19:08:08 PST
Source Batch
20260504_120805_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:10.057520+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.