Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M1.9
5.2 miles South-West of Round Mountain
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
5.2 miles South-West of Round Mountain
38.6747°N, 117.1600°W
Forecast Time Window
16th of May 2026
May 16, 2026 08:14:10 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M1.9
Predicted value
Focal Depth
8.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
277h 6m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
63.1 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
15.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.29
Predicted M1.91 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
19.6 km
Pred. 8.6 km vs actual 11.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
8bd1b7acf90791f9b5c9935f8dda0519ebddc95631f70940f8e8dde9d7617dff
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260504_120805_pred-38.67--117.16-20260516T0814
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 04, 2026 19:08:08 PST
Source Batch
20260504_120805_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:10.057520+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.