Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
9.9 miles South-West of Auburn
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
9.9 miles South-West of Auburn
38.7722°N, 121.1695°W
Forecast Time Window
10th of May 2026
May 10, 2026 15:00:49 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
8.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
139h 52m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
135.8 km
35.8 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
3.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.04
Predicted M2.34 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
11.1 km
Pred. 8.6 km vs actual 2.5 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
ae1aaa137e5f0240a41d126385eca2326175b1ae44e494163bc6d1bfd56f7260
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260504_120805_pred-38.77--121.17-20260510T1500
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 04, 2026 19:08:08 PST
Source Batch
20260504_120805_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:10.057520+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.