Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
15.9 miles South-East of Silver Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
15.9 miles South-East of Silver Springs
39.2558°N, 119.0010°W
Forecast Time Window
6th of May 2026
May 06, 2026 08:14:01 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
8.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
37h 5m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
18.2 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
2.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.04
Predicted M2.44 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
18.6 km
Pred. 8.6 km vs actual 10.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
f65cc0f7408aa58200cf1c9d0b11c33489fd53052c7b2876061dfc0d1332aca3
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260504_120805_pred-39.26--119.00-20260506T0814
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 04, 2026 19:08:08 PST
Source Batch
20260504_120805_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:10.057520+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.