Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
11.9 miles South-East of Silver Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
11.9 miles South-East of Silver Springs
39.2615°N, 119.1015°W
Forecast Time Window
6th of May 2026
May 06, 2026 12:02:41 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
8.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
40h 54m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
1.3 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
6.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.21
Predicted M2.09 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
17.0 km
Pred. 8.6 km vs actual 8.4 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
f37f822d0232bc8d49c6c8e24a2145071e03e8dabb7e9f81a049689a5f7ee947
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260504_120805_pred-39.26--119.10-20260506T1202
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 04, 2026 19:08:08 PST
Source Batch
20260504_120805_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:10.057520+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.