Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
25.0 miles West of Weott
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
25.0 miles West of Weott
40.1792°N, 124.3552°W
Forecast Time Window
10th of May 2026
May 10, 2026 19:15:51 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
8.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
144h 7m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
60.1 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
16.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.27
Predicted M3.17 vs actual M2.9
Depth Error
13.7 km
Pred. 8.6 km vs actual 5.1 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
237531b4cd496b4e521c67e851024b93e6c1528a9c471ff6b940a59cc16c7cc0
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260504_120805_pred-40.18--124.36-20260510T1915
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 04, 2026 19:08:08 PST
Source Batch
20260504_120805_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:10.057520+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.