Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M1.9
19.2 miles West of Gerlach
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
19.2 miles West of Gerlach
40.6761°N, 119.7231°W
Forecast Time Window
13th of May 2026
May 13, 2026 04:53:52 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M1.9
Predicted value
Focal Depth
8.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
201h 45m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
15.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
65.7 h
29.7 h over 36 h limit
Magnitude Error
0.21
Predicted M1.89 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
8.6 km
Pred. 8.6 km vs actual 0.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
b26e3f61b53c1f9e53c05ef3d7c8e19599bca8c33baf24073971ff7c7a7b1006
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260504_120805_pred-40.68--119.72-20260513T0453
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 04, 2026 19:08:08 PST
Source Batch
20260504_120805_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:10.057520+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.