Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
24.4 miles South-East of Calexico
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
24.4 miles South-East of Calexico
32.3650°N, 115.3080°W
Forecast Time Window
15th of June 2026
Jun 15, 2026 06:44:42 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
989h 44m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
95.6 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
3.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.31
Predicted M3.09 vs actual M3.4
Depth Error
10.6 km
Pred. 5.6 km vs actual 5.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
86579a204535f98a9c0c99cfd010ede4d3d56c46512bb104321ca8f400922f68
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260504_175950_pred-32.37--115.31-20260615T0644
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 05, 2026 00:59:53 PST
Source Batch
20260504_175950_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:11.154164+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.