Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.3
52.6 miles South-West of Eureka
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
52.6 miles South-West of Eureka
40.2649°N, 124.8730°W
Forecast Time Window
16th of May 2026
May 16, 2026 13:12:21 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
276h 12m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
69.4 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
29.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.53
Predicted M3.33 vs actual M2.8
Depth Error
40.3 km
Pred. 9.8 km vs actual 30.5 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
20576ee20a20d9cc99ef3fa1f1ce0fb3d0474841a8a8ee978db7f8ac32826977
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260504_175950_pred-40.26--124.87-20260516T1312
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 05, 2026 00:59:53 PST
Source Batch
20260504_175950_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:11.154164+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.