Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
3.0 miles North-East of Simi Valley
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
3.0 miles North-East of Simi Valley
34.3025°N, 118.7469°W
Forecast Time Window
5th of May 2026
May 05, 2026 16:28:59 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
8h 56m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
19.1 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
13.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.20
Predicted M2.4 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
17.4 km
Pred. 7.8 km vs actual 9.6 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
cee439d4c98d415768742a5e1da37609d13acb235bc21ce5f984c31d7bc4aefb
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260505_003220_pred-34.30--118.75-20260505T1628
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 05, 2026 07:32:24 PST
Source Batch
20260505_003220_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:05.292714+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.