Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
48.7 miles West of Point Arena
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
48.7 miles West of Point Arena
38.7776°N, 124.5815°W
Forecast Time Window
13th of May 2026
May 13, 2026 05:33:29 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
8.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
190h 1m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
149.6 km
49.6 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
13.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.20
Predicted M2.3 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
13.8 km
Pred. 8.3 km vs actual 5.5 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
3d2fbfd70b8922308fcac9aedd7cf60a45c516e03b6a2f22550cdc2e528abcae
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260505_003220_pred-38.78--124.58-20260513T0533
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 05, 2026 07:32:24 PST
Source Batch
20260505_003220_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:05.292714+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.