Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
14.8 miles North of Sacramento
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
14.8 miles North of Sacramento
38.7955°N, 121.4946°W
Forecast Time Window
13th of May 2026
May 13, 2026 13:15:27 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
8.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
197h 43m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
98.4 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
17.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.74
Predicted M2.06 vs actual M2.8
Depth Error
13.3 km
Pred. 8.3 km vs actual 5.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
390f21579556206d44086440551dfe30e940cf516ef3d638f02e94b495f45918
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260505_003220_pred-38.80--121.49-20260513T1315
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 05, 2026 07:32:24 PST
Source Batch
20260505_003220_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:05.292714+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.