Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.6
25.8 miles South-East of Empire
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
25.8 miles South-East of Empire
40.2374°N, 119.1428°W
Forecast Time Window
5th of May 2026
May 05, 2026 13:56:03 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.6
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
6h 23m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
91.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
20.9 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.21
Predicted M2.61 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
19.8 km
Pred. 9.7 km vs actual 10.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
d9bc5bd8f1066d3e1211127fed0948de3aa37ce4cc3fff571542632563bc092f
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260505_003220_pred-40.24--119.14-20260505T1356
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 05, 2026 07:32:24 PST
Source Batch
20260505_003220_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:05.292714+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.