Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
6.5 miles East of Banning
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
6.5 miles East of Banning
33.9250°N, 116.7625°W
Forecast Time Window
2nd of July 2026
Jul 02, 2026 22:03:51 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1400h 38m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
94.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
15.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.20
Predicted M3.0 vs actual M3.2
Depth Error
16.3 km
Pred. 6.3 km vs actual 10.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
e9c7dcb3c160c8b13087ca9cb324e09261806d9c3939b4703b980901dece317c
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260505_062516_pred-33.92--116.76-20260702T2203
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 05, 2026 13:25:19 PST
Source Batch
20260505_062516_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:06.222406+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.