Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
79.1 miles South-West of Daly City
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
79.1 miles South-West of Daly City
36.8869°N, 123.4973°W
Forecast Time Window
10th of August 2026
Aug 10, 2026 06:22:40 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
2320h 57m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
207.8 km
107.8 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
3.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.53
Predicted M3.43 vs actual M2.9
Depth Error
12.6 km
Pred. 7.6 km vs actual 5.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
24940cb128cc74482c2c5a806cb475f4cf6d0713bfbe975bdadd8cb639daed8a
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260505_062516_pred-36.89--123.50-20260810T0622
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 05, 2026 13:25:19 PST
Source Batch
20260505_062516_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:06.222406+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.