Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
13.2 miles South-East of Tracy
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
13.2 miles South-East of Tracy
37.5809°N, 121.2916°W
Forecast Time Window
10th of August 2026
Aug 10, 2026 04:09:20 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
0.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
2318h 44m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
114.0 km
14.0 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
1.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.81
Predicted M3.71 vs actual M2.9
Depth Error
5.8 km
Pred. 0.8 km vs actual 5.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
f85e7d5e2d365f49dc13e42a6c90a5fb29a8bef66485b465ef33e5ad03f89ae2
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260505_062516_pred-37.58--121.29-20260810T0409
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 05, 2026 13:25:19 PST
Source Batch
20260505_062516_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:06.222406+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.