Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
1.6 miles South-East of Calexico
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
1.6 miles South-East of Calexico
32.6606°N, 115.4819°W
Forecast Time Window
7th of May 2026
May 07, 2026 06:47:14 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
8.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
34h 43m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
94.7 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
14.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.15
Predicted M2.15 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
12.8 km
Pred. 8.8 km vs actual 4.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
9a7731fdcbb4a937863a4ac86f346e798733eaa592ac5a9b7b2fad30c18bbc49
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260505_130408_pred-32.66--115.48-20260507T0647
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 05, 2026 20:04:12 PST
Source Batch
20260505_130408_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:07.184452+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.