Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
9.0 miles South-East of Zurich
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
9.0 miles South-East of Zurich
37.0318°N, 117.8840°W
Forecast Time Window
6th of May 2026
May 06, 2026 11:03:16 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
14h 59m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
80.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
34.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.42
Predicted M2.42 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
22.1 km
Pred. 7.1 km vs actual 15.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
a73686893777f903995381223ef5e1b8b613e0c0c5e3bcc5b60f3ececf4d4f36
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260505_130408_pred-37.03--117.88-20260506T1103
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 05, 2026 20:04:12 PST
Source Batch
20260505_130408_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:07.184452+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.