Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.3
21.3 miles South of Crystal Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
21.3 miles South of Crystal Springs
37.0451°N, 115.2725°W
Forecast Time Window
6th of May 2026
May 06, 2026 10:22:40 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
14h 18m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
194.3 km
94.3 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
31.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.03
Predicted M3.33 vs actual M3.3
Depth Error
14.1 km
Pred. 6.2 km vs actual 7.9 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
a2191ea854dcf702076741cc83cf564e8e287b70be191c42436f09c342f36414
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260505_130408_pred-37.05--115.27-20260506T1022
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 05, 2026 20:04:12 PST
Source Batch
20260505_130408_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:07.184452+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.