Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
7.7 miles North of Livermore
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
7.7 miles North of Livermore
37.7921°N, 121.7881°W
Forecast Time Window
11th of May 2026
May 11, 2026 21:44:48 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
145h 40m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
48.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
22.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.37
Predicted M2.13 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
14.1 km
Pred. 7.0 km vs actual 7.1 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
8e31c0d80e52194b0ebd9906e8a52deaec003368ce3f3f369b3652e9a7c4375f
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260505_130408_pred-37.79--121.79-20260511T2144
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 05, 2026 20:04:12 PST
Source Batch
20260505_130408_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:07.184452+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.