Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
20.5 miles South of Eureka NV
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
20.5 miles South of Eureka NV
39.2286°N, 115.8545°W
Forecast Time Window
5th of May 2026
May 05, 2026 22:24:24 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
2h 20m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
96.2 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
5.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.15
Predicted M2.25 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
8.1 km
Pred. 4.0 km vs actual 4.1 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
3d3ee3a712dd08a879d8a1ce0adc049fdfc29cc7f00935a392e4f4315addbcc6
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260505_130408_pred-39.23--115.85-20260505T2224
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 05, 2026 20:04:12 PST
Source Batch
20260505_130408_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:07.184452+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.