Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
24.1 miles South-East of Austin
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
24.1 miles South-East of Austin
39.2647°N, 116.7313°W
Forecast Time Window
7th of May 2026
May 07, 2026 16:16:37 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
8.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
44h 12m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
91.6 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
6.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.26
Predicted M2.26 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
9.9 km
Pred. 8.7 km vs actual 1.2 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
f3a0526e5e4c34c52183aadde7fea1b3140d9eaf5080cb916d47ab27843e4151
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260505_130408_pred-39.26--116.73-20260507T1616
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 05, 2026 20:04:12 PST
Source Batch
20260505_130408_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:07.184452+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.