Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
27.2 miles West of Lovelock
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
27.2 miles West of Lovelock
40.1090°N, 118.9799°W
Forecast Time Window
6th of May 2026
May 06, 2026 20:37:50 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
24h 33m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
92.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
16.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.26
Predicted M3.66 vs actual M3.4
Depth Error
12.0 km
Pred. 7.0 km vs actual 5.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
81dc8a368168e7822ecf4088d5fae7588d4b2c48c0e9aa1139c46c744c1e5d9a
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260505_130408_pred-40.11--118.98-20260506T2037
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 05, 2026 20:04:12 PST
Source Batch
20260505_130408_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:07.184452+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.