Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
8.6 miles North of Soledad
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
8.6 miles North of Soledad
36.5419°N, 121.3764°W
Forecast Time Window
15th of August 2026
Aug 15, 2026 00:30:35 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
8.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
2416h 47m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
18.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
25.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.21
Predicted M3.21 vs actual M2.0
- 0.21 over limit
Depth Error
10.0 km
Pred. 8.6 km vs actual 1.4 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
ab3d3aaa065e0bf47ab52dd3ed99b50d1d79ec9e42d1a04d415ff8f9da187247
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260506_004305_pred-36.54--121.38-20260815T0030
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 06, 2026 07:43:09 PST
Source Batch
20260506_004305_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:01.788360+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.