Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.3
17.6 miles South-West of Ruth
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
17.6 miles South-West of Ruth
39.1236°N, 115.2553°W
Forecast Time Window
17th of June 2026
Jun 17, 2026 10:01:50 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1010h 18m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
38.1 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
17.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.82
Predicted M3.32 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
4.2 km
Pred. 4.1 km vs actual 0.1 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
86e9168bb54bb9a91a50d53bfe7d7297cd60a79b2cc059403b2ca9b1a3b55fec
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260506_004305_pred-39.12--115.26-20260617T1001
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 06, 2026 07:43:09 PST
Source Batch
20260506_004305_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:01.788360+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.