Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
9.0 miles South of Darwin
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
9.0 miles South of Darwin
36.1393°N, 117.6037°W
Forecast Time Window
7th of May 2026
May 07, 2026 19:55:38 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
29h 30m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
66.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
28.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.03
Predicted M2.13 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
12.6 km
Pred. 5.4 km vs actual 7.2 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
7f0d3eb9cf80ac5ea05e5cbe4358d63d71ecd40c2dc6d94fedbec29eca187e72
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260506_072439_pred-36.14--117.60-20260507T1955
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 06, 2026 14:24:42 PST
Source Batch
20260506_072439_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:02.596723+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.