Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.6
6.6 miles South-East of Dinkey Creek
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
6.6 miles South-East of Dinkey Creek
37.0229°N, 119.0570°W
Forecast Time Window
6th of May 2026
May 06, 2026 15:13:58 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.6
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
49m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
158.3 km
58.3 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
19.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.71
Predicted M3.61 vs actual M2.9
Depth Error
11.0 km
Pred. 5.4 km vs actual 5.6 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
2d3543bf727046830ae5c889493db1ad6928fd427d116ec2abe3065f8a7a13af
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260506_072439_pred-37.02--119.06-20260506T1513
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 06, 2026 14:24:42 PST
Source Batch
20260506_072439_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:02.596723+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.