Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
6.6 miles North-East of Geyserville
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
6.6 miles North-East of Geyserville
38.7992°N, 122.8319°W
Forecast Time Window
12th of May 2026
May 12, 2026 13:14:27 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
142h 49m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
3.9 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
19.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.12
Predicted M2.12 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
7.2 km
Pred. 5.4 km vs actual 1.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
f069496dc9d91901d55ba6f0a6bf29395f99d4888874c20ffabdc0d0a9f98b96
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260506_072439_pred-38.80--122.83-20260512T1314
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 06, 2026 14:24:42 PST
Source Batch
20260506_072439_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:02.596723+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.