Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
36.2 miles North-East of Belmont NV
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
36.2 miles North-East of Belmont NV
39.0601°N, 116.4912°W
Forecast Time Window
14th of May 2026
May 14, 2026 02:20:15 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
179h 55m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
68.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
38.5 h
2.5 h over 36 h limit
Magnitude Error
0.31
Predicted M2.51 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
20.8 km
Pred. 9.8 km vs actual 11.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
b8465193ec223f589f36e2b5e6e5429f0a53f0f40d02b8ef2cd3a52483ee57ca
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260506_072439_pred-39.06--116.49-20260514T0220
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 06, 2026 14:24:42 PST
Source Batch
20260506_072439_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:02.596723+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.