Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
11.4 miles North of Lewiston
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
11.4 miles North of Lewiston
40.8814°N, 122.8386°W
Forecast Time Window
13th of May 2026
May 13, 2026 18:45:21 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
3.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
172h 20m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
128.0 km
28.0 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
0.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.14
Predicted M2.24 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
8.8 km
Pred. 3.3 km vs actual 5.5 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
e9312acbc9c553c80a827be6e8b746bff10f45467f8d36a853b0596fc15fc1ec
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260506_072439_pred-40.88--122.84-20260513T1845
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 06, 2026 14:24:42 PST
Source Batch
20260506_072439_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:02.596723+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.