Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.6
60.3 miles South-West of Bodega Bay
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
60.3 miles South-West of Bodega Bay
37.6198°N, 123.6848°W
Forecast Time Window
31st of July 2026
Jul 31, 2026 20:07:50 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.6
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
2063h 46m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
146.0 km
46.0 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
11.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.08
Predicted M3.58 vs actual M3.5
Depth Error
10.9 km
Pred. 4.7 km vs actual 6.2 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
85ffc02ccf66ba0458c00355d48b90d77afc13abd734fc84b03b3e9d22365146
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260506_132131_pred-37.62--123.68-20260731T2007
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 06, 2026 20:21:34 PST
Source Batch
20260506_132131_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:03.394860+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.