Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
17.6 miles South-East of Smith Valley
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
17.6 miles South-East of Smith Valley
38.6442°N, 119.0922°W
Forecast Time Window
8th of June 2026
Jun 08, 2026 11:44:59 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
2.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
783h 23m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
83.7 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
13.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.49
Predicted M3.69 vs actual M2.2
- 0.49 over limit
Depth Error
8.4 km
Pred. 2.9 km vs actual 5.5 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
f653fa51dfff3ed39f727beb03c5d3a4b357b8e4bc995930246e069c798dcb7f
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260506_132131_pred-38.64--119.09-20260608T1144
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 06, 2026 20:21:34 PST
Source Batch
20260506_132131_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:03.394860+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.