Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
12.5 miles North of Winnemucca
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
12.5 miles North of Winnemucca
41.1495°N, 117.7869°W
Forecast Time Window
23rd of June 2026
Jun 23, 2026 23:54:46 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1155h 33m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
89.1 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
198.9 h
162.9 h over 36 h limit
Magnitude Error
0.87
Predicted M3.37 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
14.7 km
Pred. 4.7 km vs actual 10.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
7256a015588679493fec8b779e97aa3f32ad18e80d43640aa080e7cd9a33c97a
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260506_132131_pred-41.15--117.79-20260623T2354
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 06, 2026 20:21:34 PST
Source Batch
20260506_132131_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:03.394860+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.