Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.6
11.2 miles South-East of Red Mountain
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
11.2 miles South-East of Red Mountain
35.2836°N, 117.4562°W
Forecast Time Window
16th of May 2026
May 16, 2026 23:38:24 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.6
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
237h 45m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
32.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
13.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.49
Predicted M2.59 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
13.9 km
Pred. 6.4 km vs actual 7.5 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
305f5cebbe96d202ec8fd45ca454983ed9dc86f489274e2c9f3a0ff4d0375dfe
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260506_185233_pred-35.28--117.46-20260516T2338
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 07, 2026 01:52:36 PST
Source Batch
20260506_185233_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:04.443150+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.