Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
0.7 miles North of Dunmovin
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
0.7 miles North of Dunmovin
36.1594°N, 117.9287°W
Forecast Time Window
8th of May 2026
May 08, 2026 09:30:15 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
8.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
31h 37m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
78.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
14.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.36
Predicted M2.46 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
15.5 km
Pred. 8.3 km vs actual 7.2 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
9a629fcc8b1cb30a31d3c9a999929552bc43143616eb21761c125440dd1e5e41
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260506_185233_pred-36.16--117.93-20260508T0930
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 07, 2026 01:52:36 PST
Source Batch
20260506_185233_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:04.443150+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.