Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
4.6 miles North-West of Aspendell
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
4.6 miles North-West of Aspendell
37.4002°N, 118.5562°W
Forecast Time Window
17th of May 2026
May 17, 2026 01:31:53 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
239h 39m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
65.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
8.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.05
Predicted M2.25 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
19.4 km
Pred. 6.4 km vs actual 13.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
0c9936e5e538961e93d6e748d9836e64fc9b2eb782ecd42f12307c7251e4a6d3
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260506_185233_pred-37.40--118.56-20260517T0131
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 07, 2026 01:52:36 PST
Source Batch
20260506_185233_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:04.443150+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.