Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.6
7.4 miles North of Coaldale Junction
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
7.4 miles North of Coaldale Junction
38.1204°N, 117.8196°W
Forecast Time Window
10th of May 2026
May 10, 2026 03:30:49 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.6
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
73h 38m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
119.7 km
19.7 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
12.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.17
Predicted M2.57 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
13.8 km
Pred. 7.2 km vs actual 6.6 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
42359f63127596bccc6da638b915f17942c0cbb7ab1205fe85c3310901098ead
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260506_185233_pred-38.12--117.82-20260510T0330
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 07, 2026 01:52:36 PST
Source Batch
20260506_185233_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:04.443150+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.