Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.0
9.5 miles North of Camarillo
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
9.5 miles North of Camarillo
34.3487°N, 119.0819°W
Forecast Time Window
13th of May 2026
May 13, 2026 14:17:09 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
13.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
142h 26m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
17.1 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
15.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.02
Predicted M2.02 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
21.6 km
Pred. 13.6 km vs actual 8.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
edf60244def3129b880512c4f7d1109fa0d475dbd770889f410f443b898d9e42
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260507_085103_pred-34.35--119.08-20260513T1417
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 07, 2026 15:51:07 PST
Source Batch
20260507_085103_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:58.844007+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.