Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
12.2 miles South-West of Crystal Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
12.2 miles South-West of Crystal Springs
37.1908°N, 115.3119°W
Forecast Time Window
18th of May 2026
May 18, 2026 05:42:04 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
15.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
253h 50m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
146.9 km
46.9 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
7.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.21
Predicted M2.09 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
15.5 km
Pred. 15.4 km vs actual 0.1 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
43e85d50b3940e0e6eeeb27bdde8af216c1cb55e7e55b49d42b287ed7407f319
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260507_085103_pred-37.19--115.31-20260518T0542
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 07, 2026 15:51:07 PST
Source Batch
20260507_085103_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:58.844007+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.