Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
7.9 miles East of Geyserville
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
7.9 miles East of Geyserville
38.7222°N, 122.7577°W
Forecast Time Window
7th of May 2026
May 07, 2026 19:59:09 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
13.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
4h 8m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
9.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
10.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.11
Predicted M2.09 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
13.6 km
Pred. 13.6 km vs actual 0.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
a4ba8687283da56b4299018405c4622ba88a69c3e2de407ef7147c513450ac4c
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260507_085103_pred-38.72--122.76-20260507T1959
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 07, 2026 15:51:07 PST
Source Batch
20260507_085103_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:58.844007+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.