Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
5.3 miles North-East of Geyserville
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
5.3 miles North-East of Geyserville
38.7574°N, 122.8182°W
Forecast Time Window
13th of May 2026
May 13, 2026 14:38:19 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
13.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
142h 47m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
16.4 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
19.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.17
Predicted M2.97 vs actual M2.8
Depth Error
18.6 km
Pred. 13.6 km vs actual 5.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
02db8cff24e40df5b34e0b11afd3097b4ed54d48dc8777fb482a147470be012e
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260507_085103_pred-38.76--122.82-20260513T1438
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 07, 2026 15:51:07 PST
Source Batch
20260507_085103_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:58.844007+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.