Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.0
8.4 miles North-West of Round Mountain
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
8.4 miles North-West of Round Mountain
38.7978°N, 117.1783°W
Forecast Time Window
17th of May 2026
May 17, 2026 01:38:08 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
13.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
225h 47m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
71.1 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
32.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.18
Predicted M2.02 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
24.6 km
Pred. 13.6 km vs actual 11.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
51ed785606e3899ed27815b5c7865a4636bd24fad60c2863e5d6b5c794c0a585
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260507_085103_pred-38.80--117.18-20260517T0138
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 07, 2026 15:51:07 PST
Source Batch
20260507_085103_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:58.844007+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.