Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
16.4 miles South-West of Austin
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
16.4 miles South-West of Austin
39.2926°N, 117.2340°W
Forecast Time Window
10th of May 2026
May 10, 2026 05:33:34 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
10.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
61h 42m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
112.5 km
12.5 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
10.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.28
Predicted M2.68 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
17.2 km
Pred. 10.6 km vs actual 6.6 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
2b7a8b9bcbbf2710250aaec1b98feef2673c01dc9cccdea7e3a0fede28f77058
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260507_085103_pred-39.29--117.23-20260510T0533
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 07, 2026 15:51:07 PST
Source Batch
20260507_085103_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:58.844007+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.