Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
13.1 miles South of Paynes Creek
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
13.1 miles South of Paynes Creek
40.1724°N, 121.9643°W
Forecast Time Window
13th of May 2026
May 13, 2026 14:42:38 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
14.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
142h 51m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
151.2 km
51.2 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
3.9 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.19
Predicted M2.29 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
19.8 km
Pred. 14.3 km vs actual 5.5 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
ae39da6209ca09638f1a20e3aac607dcdcbbd36ceb8b42e142149a1ceccb82a1
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260507_085103_pred-40.17--121.96-20260513T1442
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 07, 2026 15:51:07 PST
Source Batch
20260507_085103_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:58.844007+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.