Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
15.4 miles North-West of Twentynine Palms
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
15.4 miles North-West of Twentynine Palms
34.3353°N, 116.1738°W
Forecast Time Window
14th of May 2026
May 14, 2026 04:04:04 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
8.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
141h 52m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
64.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
0.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.10
Predicted M2.4 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
10.8 km
Pred. 8.9 km vs actual 1.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
57f224ed409d5d1159bf6f4f51f38bb6b37f60a44a0254dc96fc21a140fbca76
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260507_231135_pred-34.34--116.17-20260514T0404
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 08, 2026 06:11:39 PST
Source Batch
20260507_231135_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:00.657955+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.