Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.6
3.7 miles South-East of Carpinteria
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
3.7 miles South-East of Carpinteria
34.3497°N, 119.4935°W
Forecast Time Window
15th of May 2026
May 15, 2026 00:58:35 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.6
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
162h 46m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
192.3 km
92.3 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
3.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.06
Predicted M2.56 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
9.1 km
Pred. 6.9 km vs actual 2.2 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
ad492581463674f1285e94e7124dab654e3eec3de683e1ee09bd85213946844b
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260507_231135_pred-34.35--119.49-20260515T0058
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 08, 2026 06:11:39 PST
Source Batch
20260507_231135_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:00.657955+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.